In Focus: Digital TV
Are you getting the big picture? DTV is more than just an enhancement of the NTSC color TV system we adopted in 1953. The end result of this technology is likely to be a wealth of fresh programming and services, and, quite possibly, a whole new way of life. Digital On-Air Back in April of '97, the FCC allocated an additional channel to every broadcast station in the country to initiate the transition to DTV. The plan is for local network affiliates and independents to continue broadcasting analog NTSC television on their existing channels while simulcasting a digital version of their NTSC programming on their new channel. Several years from now, when the population has gone digital, the broadcasters will turn off their NTSC transmitters and give back their original analog channels for an FCC auction. The target date for that giveback is the year 2006, though the broadcasters successfully lobbied congress for legislation that allows them to keep their analog channels until 85 percent of a broadcaster's individual market is watching digital programming. That's not as big a number as it seems: About 65 percent of U.S. TV households today get their picture by cable TV. Since it's understood that cable services will be passing along digital signals to their subscribers at some point for viewing on digital or analog TV sets, we actually need only convert another 20 percent of households to digital before we shut down the NTSC transmitters. Still, most experts agree that will take considerably longer than seven or eight years, and that most stations will be broadcasting in analog NTSC for a long time to come. (See "Living in the Past.") Nonetheless, to help speed things along (and to answer critics who called the giveaway of free air space a boondoggle), the FCC has insisted that broadcasters seed the receiver market with digital signals. A total of 26 major-network-affiliated stations (tied to ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox) have volunteered to begin digital broadcasting this November in the top 10 TV markets, with all network-affiliated stations in those markets to follow by May 1999 (see map). By November 1999, major-network-affiliated broadcasters in the next 20 largest markets will come onboard, for a total of 120 stations nationwide. And that number doesn't account for station conversions made by PBS, which has expressed enthusiasm for DTV, or by stations in the more than 200 smaller markets around the country. In reality, though, there are issues that may slow the initiation of DTV broadcasts, notably a shortage of towers for all the extra transmission antennas and the cost of conversion, which may be prohibitive for smaller stations. Even if the digital lights do go on in November, just what these stations will transmit on those new channels, and how you'll get that signal, remains uncertain. Broadcasters are still trying to figure out how best to make money with digital TV. Sending out multiple standard-definition programs on their digital channel, or "multicasting," could allow them to open up new revenue streams with pay-TV services or specialized programming, like 24-hour local news, that they could sell advertising against. But extra programming is expensive. And commercial broadcasters, who make money by delivering the greatest number of eyeballs, aren't anxious to fragment their viewers. At this writing, then, the big networks appear to be leaning toward full-time broadcasting of a single HD or standard-definition signal, or transmitting HD during primetime (or for big sports events) while multicasting during off hours. The latter approach makes especially good sense for PBS, which has a mandate to serve as many small, niche audiences as possible with its commercial-free programming. The network has said it expects to broadcast high-def with digital surround for its more popular primetime shows, like Nature, while multicasting four channels during the day that might include, for example, simultaneous broadcasts of Sesame Street, this Old House, an adult-education program, and a high school math class. Also unknown right now is how soon cable subscribers will have access to digital signals generated by local broadcast affiliates, and whether they'll get the secondary channels from those stations that are multicasting. Cable networks including HBO, TBS, and Discovery Channel have announced intentions to deliver a digital/HD feed to cable operators to compete with whatever the broadcast networks supply. But individual cable systems will decide when there are enough digital TVs in their markets (or enough competitive pressures from terrestrial broadcast or satellite) to warrant the investments to upgrade their head-ends and consumer set-top boxes. Those conversions are likely to take place reasonably quickly-but who knows? Furthermore, the very first cable-system conversions may accommodate standard-definition digital but not HD; additional upgrades will be required for full compatibility with the DTV standard. As for multicasting, its considered unlikely that FCC "must carry" rules will be amended to force cable operators to pass along as many as four or six programs from NBC or ABC, as they do today with the primary signal generated by these networks' local broadcast affiliates. So what do you do if you're hot to get full-tilt digital TV and your cable monopoly isn't cooperating? Just dust off that old set-top antenna. Even delivered over the air, DTV should look fabulous, because digital transmissions don't suffer from degradation as you get farther away from the transmitter the way analog signals do. If you're within range-about 55 miles under ideal conditions-there will be no ghosts, no snow, no constant tuning of rabbit ears. You can still keep your cable feed to receive the rest of your nonbroadcast stations, though people who pay for basic cable only as an antidote for poor off-air reception could find themselves returning to the days of free TV. And DTV will be a huge boon to satellite-TV subscribers who turn to the airwaves to get their local stations. Coming to a Store Near You By the time you read this, television manufacturers attending January's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas will have announced details of their plans for their fall rollout of HDTVs and, possibly, standard-definition DTVs. (Watch for future reports in Home Theater and Home Theater Buyer's Guide.) At this writing, however, information is sketchy about the format, feature content, and pricing of the new digital sets. We do know that most of the first HDTVs will be large, widescreen rear projectors (around 60 inches diagonal or bigger) that will carry suggested retails starting around $5,000, and running as high as $10,000 or more, depending on the manufacturer, size, and feature content. It's been suggested that you can expect to pay anywhere from $1,500 to $3,500 more than the cost of a typical big-screen projector to get a 16:9 widescreen HDTV. Therefore, today's 60-inch models with suggested prices of $3,500 to $4,000 might run anywhere from $5,000 to $6,000 in their DTV versions. Note that these TVs will be capable of receiving any of the 18 signal formats adopted alongside the DTV standard, including high-definition and standard-definition interlaced- and progressive-scan signals. That's important. The precise signal format used by broadcasters has been left open to allow them the greatest flexibility and efficiency in transmitting their signals. Fortunately, the FCC's Advanced Television Systems Committee (ATSC), in conjunction with the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA), has created a program to certify which DTVs, computers, and other video devices are capable of receiving all of the listed ATSC video formats. Products that can receive or display all the formats will be identified in stores with a special logo, Right now, it's expected that all new DTVs will be ATSC certified, though some personal computers or specialty devices may handle only some formats. Keep in mind, too, that certification doesn't necessarily mean a TV can play back HD programming at its intended resolution or aspect ratio; only that the set won't go dark if that's whats being broadcast. Similarly, soon after the first DTV sets appear, if not simultaneously, set-top converter boxes will come on the market to allow analog NTSC TVs to receive and display images broadcast digitally. Again, these images won't be reproduced with high-definition resolution, but they should be better than today's analog NTSC broadcasts by virtue of their lower noise and slightly greater detail. CEMA expects the price of these boxes to eventually drop to less than $150 by the time the last analog signals are switched off, but they'll be considerably more expensive out of the gate. Buy Now, Buy Later? If you're like most consumers considering the purchase of a bigscreen NTSC TV, you've probably been asking yourself: Do you buy now or wait and buy digital? A lot, of course, depends on the products and price points manufacturers announce for the DTV launch. But be advised that your wait for digital could be a long one. Those consumers looking for a direct-view digital set or a small rear projector may not even see one on the market until late 1999 or 2000. You'll wait even longer for prices to come down to the genuine bargain levels of today's analog sets. As for premature obsolescence, today's NTSC televisions will receive analog signals until at least 2006, and probably well beyond. After that, you'll be able to hook up a DTV converter box. And if you decide to buy a digital TV in the interim-after prices have dropped-you can always retire your analog set to a bedroom.